Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2022, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are near their long-term averages, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than their long-term averages. The warmer Caribbean and eastern part of the subtropical Atlantic also favor an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 19 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers expect nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
So far, the 2022 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012 and 2021.
The 2021 hurricane season had eight continental U.S. named storm and two continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes, including Category 4 Hurricane Ida which battered the central Gulf Coast and then brought devastating flooding to the mid-Atlantic and northeast US.
The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 2, July 7 and Aug. 4.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
- 71% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%)
- 47% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%)
- 46% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%)
- 60% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%)