WEATHER ALERT- Flooding Likely, Severe Storms Possible 3-1-3,2023

It’s going to be a very wet, windy, and sometimes stormy 72 hours. Here in a nutshell is what the next 72 hours looks like:

Flooding is likely across Middle Tennessee. A Flood Watch has been already posted for Maury County. I would expect that to extend across Middle Tennessee by tomorrow. With already saturated ground and swollen creeks and rivers, localized flooding in those prone areas is also likely.
A cold front will clash with these Spring temps tonight and those South of I-40 are likely to see some severe storms. The main threat being straightline winds, possible hail and torrential downpours.
Thursday that cold front drops back down as a warm front. and meandering around for the day. Expect heavy rain of 1″-3″.
By early Friday morning we will see high winds, and probably a wind advisory. The possibility of severe storms and a possible isolated tornado is likely. Your morning drive willl probably be impacted.
By Saturday morning, you will have a little cooler temps, but, we will dry out and the winds will go away. Your weekend looks marvelous.

We will be monitoring and updating this forecast as needed. For your Close to Home LIVE radar and watches and warnings find your county here

From the NWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
350 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

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350 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The airmass across middle TN will become increasingly unstable
through this afternoon. As a cold front moves our way tonight, there
is a risk of severe thunderstorms whereby damaging winds, hail and
isolated tornadoes are all possible. In addition to the severe
threat, that cold front will begin to slow down as it approaches
southern areas this evening. Cells will move roughly parallel to the
boundary and set the stage for flooding with 1 to 2 inch overnight
amounts being common. The highest risk for flooding and severe
weather will be across our southern counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Tonight`s cold front will begin lifting back to the north as a warm
front on Thursday. Dynamics will ramp up with additional heavy
rainfall being possible during the day. Areas across southern Middle
TN will be particularly vulnerable to the flood threat given the
expected prior rainfall amounts. Through Friday, 3 inch rainfall
totals are expected across the south with 1-2 inch amounts north.

The final chance of severe storms will occur early Friday morning as
the primary frontal boundary and pre frontal forcing moves through.
Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will all be possible
across the entire mid state from 6 AM in our west to noon along the
Plateau.

Look for windy advisory level conditions to come into play Thursday
night and Friday. Gusts of 40 mph+ is looking more and more likely,
particularly on Friday afternoon.

Wednesday

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 58. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.